> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://glimpse.gitbook.io/glimpse/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://glimpse.gitbook.io/glimpse/getting-started/prediction-markets.md).

# Prediction Markets

Each market represents a single question:

**"What will the Bitcoin price be at the end of this hour?"**

Participants express their view by purchasing contracts in the price range they believe will contain the final settlement price.

***

## Reading the Market

#### Bitcoin Live Price

The current market price of Bitcoin.

This updates continuously and serves as the reference point for all forecasts.

#### Forecast Low

The lowest price range receiving meaningful market interest.

#### Most Likely

The price range currently assigned the highest probability by the market.

#### Forecast High

The highest price range receiving meaningful market interest.

***

## Understanding the Forecast Distribution

The bars shown beside each price range represent the market's estimated probability of Bitcoin settling within that range.

Larger percentages indicate outcomes the market currently considers more likely.

Smaller percentages indicate outcomes the market considers less likely.

Together, these probabilities form the market forecast.

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## Making a Forecast

#### Step 1

Select the price range you believe Bitcoin will settle in when the market closes.

#### Step 2

Choose the number of contracts you would like to purchase.

#### Step 3

Review the trade details before confirming.

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## Understanding Trade Details

#### Cost

The amount required to purchase the selected contracts.

#### Payout

The amount received if Bitcoin settles within your selected range.

#### Profit

Your payout minus the cost of the position.

#### Odds

The implied odds based on the current market probability.

#### ROI

The potential return on investment if the forecast is correct.

***

## Resolution

Each market closes at the time displayed in the header.

When the market closes, the final Bitcoin settlement price is determined.

Contracts in the correct price range receive the payout.

All other contracts expire without value.

***

## Why Probabilities Change

Market probabilities update whenever participants buy or sell contracts.

As new information enters the market, participants adjust their forecasts and probabilities change to reflect the latest market expectations.

The forecast is continuously updated until the market resolves.