Understanding the Forecast

Understand how to interpret probabilities, confidence levels and market expectations.

The forecast is the core output of Glimpse. It shows how the market currently views a range of possible future outcomes and how likely each outcome is considered to be. As participants trade, the forecast updates automatically to reflect new information entering the market.

Reading the forecast

Each forecast is made up of probabilities. Higher probabilities indicate outcomes the market currently considers more likely. Lower probabilities indicate outcomes the market considers less likely.

Rather than producing a single prediction, Glimpse shows a range of possible outcomes and the market's confidence in each one.

Why does the forecast change?

Market expectations change when new information becomes available. News events, economic developments and changing market conditions can all influence participant behaviour. As participants react and adjust their positions, the forecast updates in real time.

What can the forecast tell you?

The forecast can help you understand:

• Which outcomes the market currently considers most likely

• How expectations change over time

• How the market reacts to new information

• How confidence is distributed across possible outcomes

Does the forecast guarantee what will happen?

No. The forecast reflects market expectations, not certainty.

Like any forecast, it represents what participants collectively believe is most likely based on the information available at that time. As new information emerges, those expectations may change.