Understanding Forecasting Markets

Learn what forecasting markets are and how they help reveal market expectations.

Forecasting markets are markets designed to estimate the likelihood of future outcomes.

Participants buy and sell contracts based on what they believe is most likely to happen. As trading occurs, prices adjust to reflect the market's collective expectations.

Unlike traditional forecasts, which often rely on a single analyst or research report, forecasting markets aggregate information from many participants.

The result is a continuously updated view of what the market currently considers most likely.

At launch, Glimpse uses forecasting markets to help participants understand future Bitcoin price outcomes. Over time, forecasting markets may expand to additional assets and markets.

Forecasting markets do not predict the future with certainty.

They provide a transparent view of how market expectations evolve as new information becomes available.

What data does Glimpse forecast?

Market topics are chosen based on criteria reflecting their global significance, inherent market uncertainty/volatility, and trader interest. Glimpse prioritizes market topics with high global financial significance and high uncertainty.