For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. This page is also available as Markdown.

What are Event contracts?

What users are buying and selling, how contracts work and how outcomes are structured.

Event Contracts are the building blocks of Glimpse markets. Each contract represents a specific Bitcoin price range at settlement.

If Bitcoin settles within that range when the market resolves, the contract pays out. If Bitcoin settles outside that range, the contract expires worthless.

As participants buy and sell contracts, prices update continuously to reflect the market's current expectations.


Understanding Prices

Contract prices can be interpreted as the market's estimated probability of an outcome occurring.

For example:

Contract Price
Market-Implied Probability

20 sats

20%

50 sats

50%

75 sats

75%

As market expectations change, contract prices change too.


Buying Contracts

When you purchase a contract, you are expressing the view that an outcome is more likely than the market currently expects.

Before confirming a trade, Glimpse displays:

  • Number of contracts

  • Total cost

  • Maximum payout

  • Potential profit

Review these details carefully before proceeding.


Selling Contracts

Contracts can be sold before settlement.

If the value of your contract increases, you may be able to sell your position for a profit before the market resolves.

You can also choose to exit a position before settlement if market conditions change..


Risk Management

All trading involves risk.

Before opening a position:

  • Understand the market you are trading

  • Never risk funds you cannot afford to lose

  • Review your maximum possible loss

  • Consider how changing information may affect market expectations

Successful forecasting is not about certainty. It is about identifying situations where your assessment differs from the market's assessment.

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